Learning from history helps us avoid past mistakes. As we transition to low Global Warming Potential (GWP) refrigerants, it’s essential to reflect on the history of refrigerants and make informed decisions about our future.
For centuries, people have relied on cold storage for preservation. Before mechanical refrigeration ice collected in winter was stored in underground bunkers and used throughout the warmer months to keep things cold. The first mechanical refrigeration systems emerged in the 19th century, but early systems were limited to using natural refrigerants like ammonia and methyl chloride which were effective but highly toxic and flammable. Although water and CO2 were safer options, their operational limitations hindered widespread use.
Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), first synthesized by General Motors in the late 1920s, transformed refrigeration and air conditioning. These second-generation refrigerants were non-flammable, low-toxicity, and effective.
It is hard to overestimate how much access to reliable and safe refrigeration systems has benefited the advancement of human society. It would be hard to imagine a world without cold storage, refrigerated food/medical supply chain, and even household refrigerators and freezers.
By the 1970s Air Conditioners are widely applied in commercial and residential applications. More than 50% of new cars were equipped with AC and R22 were widely accepted as industry standard refrigerant for unitary air conditioners and heat pumps.
Then, to the shock and awe of the world, we had the first reported hole in the ozone layer in 1985.
Now, we have known about the existence of the ozone layer and its importance to the protection of life on earth since the early 1900s. In fact, the ozone layer has been actively monitored by the British Antarctic Survey since the late 1950s.
The seasonality to ozone concentration over the Antarctic has been recorded since that time, with depletion happening during the Antarctic Summer and regeneration during the winter. By the late 1970s researchers started to notice a concerning trend where a greater level of loss was happening each summer. They determined that concentrations of chlorine and bromine in the stratosphere from man-made chemicals like CFCs and HCFCs were acting as catalysts for ozone degradation when the sunlight returned each summer.
The report of the hole lead to unprecedented response from the Global community. The same year we saw the Vienna Convention for Protection of the Ozone layer, which could be summarized as – Everyone agrees this is a big deal requiring cooperation and immediate action. Quickly followed by the Montreal Protocol for the phase out of Ozone Depleting Substances (ODS), which could be summarized as – Here is what we are going to do!
The phase out of different ODS under the Montreal Protocol started in 1989 and varied according to their impact and viability of alternatives. The phase out commonly recognized by anyone in the HP and AC industry was that of R-22 which did not start until later. For R22 we saw no new equipment after 2010 and no new refrigerant as of 2020.
The switch to R410A represented the transition to the 3rd Generation of Refrigerants. Touted as non-toxic, non-flammable, with acceptable working pressures (comparable to R-22), and non-ozone depleting, R410A seemed like the ideal “new” refrigerant for everyday applications like HP’s and VRF.
Now the big question is, since we just switched from R22 to R410A, why are we transitioning again? Well, it turns out while R410A has a lot of great properties, it also comes with a high Global Warming Potential (GWP)… So, then the question might be, “Okay, but we have known about greenhouse gasses and global warming for a long time, why did we not just transition to lower GWP refrigerants last time?”. The reality is we can only take action on the things we know and GWP of refrigerants was not on the radar when the Montreal Protocol was being drafted.
See, just like how we knew the ozone layer had seasonality but did not know the knock-on effect our human-made refrigerants would have. We have also known about the greenhouse effect for a long time and how the atmosphere contains gases that give it insulating properties which are critical to life on earth. By the 1980s, we knew that adding more greenhouse gases through activities like burning fossil fuels could increase the warming effect and ultimately have implications for a changing climate. But we did not know the scale to which man-made refrigerants would contribute to the warming.
It was not until the 1990s that Global Warming Potential (GWP) was implemented as a measure of the global warming impact of different gasses as compared to CO2. In simplest terms, it is a pound for pound comparison of a gas’ contribution to the greenhouse effect. For example, releasing one pound of R410A refrigerant has the same impact as global warming releasing 2088lb of CO2.
So, when global CO2 levels hit 400PPM in 2013, it was a wake-up call that was similar to the discovery of the ozone hole. It was like, “Hey CO2 levels are really a lot higher than they have been in recent history and they are increasing exponentially, we might want to start scaling back on the man-made gases having a disproportionate contribution to greenhouse effect now to protect life on earth as we know it. And, hey, since the Montreal Protocol seemed to work last time, maybe we can leverage that for meaningful change again!”
This was the birth of the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol. It is the phase-down plan of equivalent CO2 impact from all HFC production as agreed upon by signing members. It uses a baseline set by averaging equivalent CO2 coming from HFC production in 2011, 2012, and 2013, and adding 15%.
The Kigali Amendment has been open to many interpretations it is important to note that this chart (below with hyperlink) is not specific to R410A but instead a total phase-down of equivalent CO2 impact from all HFC production in developed nations like Canada and the US over the next 15 years. It is also important to note the steps to hit these targets are not universally agreed upon and it is up to each nation what regulations are implemented to hit their commitments.
Man-made HFCs are used in many different products including aerosols, foams, and refrigeration systems and the first step down of 10% was already targeted for 2019, with more significant step-downs scheduled for 2024 and 2029. Canada overachieved and hit a 25% reduction from the baseline with regulations implemented to hit 2019 targets.
As part of the 2024 targets, the US has limited the GWP of refrigerants used in new installations of many different HVAC systems to <700GWP. This is not a phase-down specific to R410A systems but rather any new systems using refrigerants over 700GWP.
In Canada, many refrigeration systems have regulations on maximum permissible GWP of refrigerant used in new systems, but those have been in place since at least the last revision of the Ozone-depleting Substances and Halocarbon Alternatives Regulation (ODSHAR) in 2020. That revision included a 750GWP restriction on new chillers installed after January 1, 2025, but most other HVAC systems regulated by US bodies are not included.
A new revision of ODSHAR was expected in December 2024 but has yet to be published. HRAI and other stakeholders in the refrigerant transition fully expect the new revision to include the other HVAC systems already regulated by the US, but timelines for compliance are undetermined (note 2020 revision implemented 5 year timeline for chillers).
The main obstacle for the continued use of R410A in Canada is currently not our own regulations but the fact that most HVAC systems come to Canada through USA and their Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulation was not only the manufacture and use of >700GWP refrigerants in HVAC systems, but it also included import and export of that equipment. This had the potential to effectively block R410A systems from import to Canada before our codes were updated to allow new refrigerants. Clarification has come out that as long as there is no value added in the US products they can be imported through to Canada.
With the time ticking away to get the remaining inventory of R410A systems in the US sold and installed (most have January 1, 2026, cut off for new installations with some exceptions), this scenario could see Canada become a dumping ground for remaining US based R410A equipment come next year. However, the more likely scenario is that inventory of R410A equipment in the US will be quickly depleted in the coming months, forcing installations in Canada to transition to new low GWP refrigerants before mandated by our own regulations.
Another looming concern with the Kigali Amendment commitments is the next step-down date in 2029. There has been a lot of speculation that the 2029 phase-down deadline could mean another reduction in permissible GWP limit for new HVAC systems, potentially below 500GWP, but this is largely unfounded. There is no evidence of further restrictions to new HVAC systems in US or Canada after the current 2024 phase down and it’s highly unlikely given the minimal improvement the total life cycle climate performance of these systems.
In a future blog, we will explore this current transition further and discuss the considerations taken to determine which refrigerant comes after R410A and what comes next.
Stay tuned!
Written by Shawn Slaunwhite
